2010: The Year When Everything Could Change – For The Worse
I’m often reminded of the late-90’s science fiction TV show, “Sliders,” in which a group of friends each week traveled, as the introduction stated, to “different worlds, different dimensions,” hoping they had returned home. “It’s the same year, and you’re the same person,” but some major fact was different. In one episode, for example, by paying for a cab ride with dollars, learned that Russia ruled America.
Next year may feel like an episode out of “Sliders.” Why? Because, despite the dramatic, Democratic landslide victory of 2008, almost everything is up for grabs in 2010. 38 of 50 states have elections for Governor. And, as all of us who followed this spring’s gay marriage dramas, yes, the state legislatures have to vote on gay marriage bills, but it’s the Governor who signs – or vetoes – those bills.
Most of those Governors’ Mansions will be home to someone else come 2011, as half of their current occupants are either facing term limits or have decided to not run for re-election. Right now, out of 50 Governors, 28 are Democrats, 22 Republican. This year, Virginia and New Jersey have Governors’ races, and it looks like both states will switch and elect Republicans. Assuming that’s true, we will have 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans. An almost even split.
Ten Democratic Governors and eight Republican Governors will be seeking (re)election (some, like New York’s David Patterson, should he choose to run, were not elected to the office they now hold.)
Of course, Governors don’t vote as a block, they don’t really vote on anything, so it’s not like we need a majority to get something done. And Republican Governors don’t automatically veto marriage equality legislation – Connecticut’s Republican Governor Jodi Rell is a great example of a smart Republican putting equality ahead of party ideology. But by and large, a Republican Governor will often mean a veto for a same-sex marriage bill. And we cannot allow that to happen.
Of course, these election are almost fifteen months away, and, as John McCain knows, any election can turn on a dime – or on stating how sound our dimes are. But there are lots of folks who make their money on predicting what the future will look like. Let’s do some divinging from their predictions and look and what the landscape could look like the morning of November 3 – when all the results are (hopefully!) in.
On the Republican side, which according to some is a bit weak, there are eight states that could flip to the Democrats. On the Democratic side, there are five that could flip. Assuming the two 2009 races go to the Republicans, and we then have a 26-24 split, that would give us a 29-21 split. But, as Governors terms of office vary sate by state, the details are more important.