Obama Now Has 91.6% Chance Of Winning Re-Election, Says Nate Silver
President Obama now has a 91.6% chance of winning re-election, predicts the New York Times’ Nate Silver, via his FiveThirtyEight blog. Silver, who has been updating his model daily, is now updating his model twice daily, and predicts Obama winning with 50.9% of the popular vote and 314.6 electoral college votes.
“Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points,” Silver notes early this morning. “Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.”
Barack Obama won election in 2008 with an historic landslide, including 365 electoral college votes against John McCain’s 173. Obama won with 52.9% of the popular vote against McCain’s 45.7%.

Enjoy this piece?
… then let us make a small request. The New Civil Rights Movement depends on readers like you to meet our ongoing expenses and continue producing quality progressive journalism. Three Silicon Valley giants consume 70 percent of all online advertising dollars, so we need your help to continue doing what we do.
NCRM is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. From unflinching coverage of religious extremism, to spotlighting efforts to roll back our rights, NCRM continues to speak truth to power. America needs independent voices like NCRM to be sure no one is forgotten.
Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Help ensure NCRM remains independent long into the future. Support progressive journalism with a one-time contribution to NCRM, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click here to donate by check.
![]() |