President Obama currently is “losing” to a generic GOP 2012 candidate, according to the latest Gallup monthly tracking poll, which finds a “significant” spread in the 47-39 margin among registered voters. Gallup, in a separate monthly survey, finds U.S. satisfaction down to 16%, the lowest in over two years. Also significant is that satisfaction among Democrats dropped the most, ten points, from 35% to 25%.
READ: Gutting GOP, Gutless Obama: Will America’s Economy Go the Way of Europe?
U.S. Satisfaction
“Fewer Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country today than were satisfied in June or in any month since February 2009,” Gallup reports. “The recent month-to-month decline is seen particularly among Democrats, but is also evident among whites, broadly.
“Americans’ approval of Obama and of Congress, along with their economic confidence ratings, are all similar to where they stood in June, as well as prior to the bin Laden-related rally in April. Whether the dampened satisfaction this month is a temporary finding or the precursor for a possible decline in Gallup’s political and economic indicators remains to be seen.”
Obama vs. Generic GOP Candidate
“Both Bushes had higher job approval ratings in the year before their re-election contests than Obama does now, helping explain why Obama has fared less well on the generic ballot in the year prior to the election year,” the Gallup report states. “George H.W. Bush’s approval rating in July 1991 averaged 71%, while George W. Bush’s July 2003 average was 60%. Obama’s latest weekly average is 46%”
“President Obama’s re-election prospects do not look very favorable at this point — if the election were held today, as measured by the generic presidential ballot. However, that result does not necessarily mean he is likely to be denied a second term in November 2012. At this point in 1991, George H.W. Bush looked like a sure bet to win a second term, but he was defeated.”
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