NOM, the National Organization for Marriage, Tuesday issued results of a poll that claims, “57% of New Yorkers Reject Same-Sex Marriage, Just One in Four Want the Legislature to Decide the Issue,” but an examination of the published results indicate the poll methodology is severely flawed, heavily weighted with older, conservative respondents, and the pollster, QEV, is an organization whose marketing brags of its president’s affiliation with the Republican Party.
NOM, identified as an “anti-gay group” by the Southern Poverty Law Center, claims that “57% of New Yorkers Reject Same-Sex Marriage,” without stating clearly that only 302 registered voters were polled — a very small sample. Other disturbing factors from NOM’s QEV poll (embedded below also) include that the results state that only 7% of respondents were aged 18-39. A much larger proportion of registered voters — not to mention the population of New York in general — is aged 18-39.
More importantly, studies show that those 40 and older become increasingly opposed to same-sex marriage, which is often cited as the ultimate reason why, over time, same-sex marriage equality is inevitable.
67% of the respondents polled in the NOM/QEV survey reported they were married, a much larger percent than are actually maried in the state of New York. The 2010 U.S. Census states that 49.1% of New York men and 43.3% of New York women are currently married.
It’s not illogical to state that those who are married, and older, on average, might feel marriage should not be extended to same-sex couples.
Additionally, 40% of respondents stated they were conservative or very conservative on social issues, and only 34% stated they were liberal or very liberal.
The poll, while titled, “June 2011 Flash Survey,” does not state specifically when it was conducted, what the margin of error is, what percent of households were called (assuming this was actually a telephone survey) had landlines versus how what percent called had cell phones, what the racial breakdown was, what percentage were Hispanic, Latino, etc.
These are all standard factors published by reputable pollsters.
QEV’s own marketing states, “The soul of our work is the utilization of public opinion data to craft an actionable communications strategy which achieves your public relations or legislative goals. This is why the collection of opinion data is where our work begins — not where it ends.”
Additionally, QEV states that its president, Steven Wagner, “conducted much of the research behind the GOP ‘Contract with America’ during the 1994 campaign,” and adds that Wagner, “was the Political Director of the National Republican Institute for International Affairs, the Republican Party’s international office.” Further, QEV’s marking states, “Mr. Wagner has also served on the Republican leadership staff of the U.S. House of Representatives. He has served in senior positions in numerous campaigns for federal office, including two Presidential campaigns.”
Clearly, this latest salvo, a flawed poll by a pollster who highlights his work as a Republican and with Republicans, released when the vote on marriage equality in the New York State Senate was already expected to have taken place, shows just how desperate NOM and Maggie Gallagher truly are.
Recently, NOM made headlines when it released an interview with former NFL Super Bowl star David Tyree, who has since repeatedly stated that same-sex marriage will led to “anarchy,” and that government has no business redefining marriage. Tyree is African-American, and perhaps forgot that African-Americans — unlike gays and lesbians — have benefited from the U.S. government’s expansion over time of marriage equality.
NOM NY 2011 Survey on Marriage
http://www.scribd.com/embeds/58404085/content?start_page=1&view_mode=list&access_key=key-1xwrqgfs13pv88skcp1j
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