The New York Times‘ Nate Silver has identified the tipping point for marriage equality advocates and writes today in “Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority,” that “opponents of gay marriage almost certainly no longer constitute a majority; just one of the last nine polls has shown opposition to gay marriage above 50 percent.”
Tuesday’s CNN/Opinion Research marriage equality poll, Silver says (as The New Civil Rights Movement reported Tuesday,) is “the fourth credible poll in the past eight months to show an outright majority of Americans in favor of gay marriage.” Silver then points to a chart (above) that shows a trendline that “estimates that about 50 percent of Americans now support gay marriage and that 46 percent are opposed.”
READ: “NOM’s Numbers Problem With Marriage Equality Polls“
“There is a margin of error associated with the calculation of the trendline, so it is too soon to say with confidence that support for gay marriage has become the plurality position (let alone the majority one), Silver cautions. “Other polls — like a Pew survey released in March — continue to show opinion split about evenly.”
READ: “DOMA: Majorities Of Almost Every Demographic Support Repeal“
An important note to President Obama: Silver, named in 2009 by Time Magazine as one of “The World’s 100 Most Influential People,” adds, “[i]f support for gay marriage were to continue accelerating as fast as it has in the past two years, supporters would outnumber opponents roughly 56-40 in the general population by November 2012” adding, “it is no longer politically advantageous for candidates to oppose same-sex marriage, which in turn softens opposition to it among the general public, creating a sort of feedback loop and accelerating the trend.”
No wonder Brian Brown of the National Organization for Marriage is warning of “a same-sex marriage regime.”