In the wake of Judge Vaughn Walker’s Prop 8 decision, a just-released CNN poll shows that 52% of Americans think marriage equality is a constitutional right. 46% of Americans disagreed. This is the first time a majority of Americans have said same-sex couples should have the constitutional right to be married.
As with any poll, there is a margin of error and there are different ways of asking questions. The highly-respected Nate Silver, founder of fivethirthyeight.com weighs in:
CNN also asked the question in a slightly different way to half its respondents, omitting the term “should” from the question above, i.e. “Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?”. Using that phrasing, 49 percent said yes and 51 percent said no.
Combining the two subsamples has 50.5 percent of Americans in support of gay marriage and 47.5 percent opposed: just about the barest possible majority. But a majority nevertheless, something that no previous poll had shown. An ABC/Washington Post poll from April 2009 had come the closest, showing a 49/46 plurality in support of gay marriage rights; a few other polls had also shown gay marriage to the plurality position when respondents were given a three-way choice of marriage, civil unions, and no legal recognition. But no national poll, save for one debatable case with highly unorthodox phrasing, had shown it to the the majority position.
The poll was started on Friday, August 6 — two days after the Prop 8 decision was announced and had filtered through the news cycle.
More good news: The poll showed a four percentage point increase from a year ago when the question, “Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?” was asked, and a corresponding four point decrease in opposition.
Even more good news!
Those under age 50 who believe same sex couples have a “constitutional right to get married” grew to 58%, with 42% opposed. Support rises to 61% by those under age 50 who think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married.
It should come as no suprise that Conservatives and/or Republicans are the only political demographic that gave less than 50% support. 67% of Democrats and 55% of Independents believe “gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married.”
Now, here’s where the numbers get a bit strange.
Remember, the question was asked two ways:
“Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?”
and,
“Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?”
45% of men think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married, but only 37% of men think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married.
67% of women think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married, and 52% of women think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married.
While there is a great deal of good news here, the old news remains: support for marriage equality is slimmest with conservatives, Republicans, men, and those over age 50. We have our work cut out for us!