Gay Marriage: Is Obama Really About To Announce His Support?

Is President Obama about to announce his support for including same-sex couples in the institution of marriage? Has President Obama completed his process of “evolving,” at least enough to say he now  “believes” in marriage equality? Is he paving the way, testing the waters, or just teasing?

All of a sudden there are some well-place serious rumblings, and while the LGBT community has suffered far too much teasing a-la Sally Field’s “You like me, you really, really, like me!,” these may be more strategic than we’ve seen before.

First, there’s Richard Socarides, currently president of Equality Matters, who, as one of the highest-level openly gay senior advisors, advised President Bill Clinton on LGBT issues. Socarides just penned a piece in the New Yorker that suggests that, “now, the remarkable new reality for Obama in this election is that supporting marriage equality is smart politics.”

A majority of independents and young voters already favor equal marriage rights. These are important voting blocks, and a key part of the President’s reëlection strategy. Support for gay rights will also help him energize liberals in the Party and others who think he has not acted boldly around core progressive issues such as immigration and the environment and on other civil-rights issues. Hard-right conservatives who strongly oppose marriage rights, meanwhile, will never support Obama anyway.

Socarides details several court cases that have supported or likely will support LGBT civil rights, and suggests that for Obama, there is really no choice.

If these federal appellate rulings come down in favor of gay rights, and especially if they are unambiguous in holding that the Constitution requires full access to civil marriage, the President will need to honor and abide by those rulings. Having a Democratic President, an African American at that, on the “wrong” side of federal-appeals-court rulings on civil rights is an untenable situation.

Then, there’s this.

Obama just sent a congratulations letter (image, top) to one of the first same-sex couples to marry under New York state’s new marriage equality law. Matt and Aaron Katz received this letter from President Obama, congratulating them on their “special occasion.” While it does not specifically state “marriage,” what’s curious is that the Katz’s have no known affiliation to the White House, nor have they been in the news. It appears to be a thoroughly random act — and frankly, the administration does not have time to hang out on Flickr and come across photos of the Katz’s same-sex wedding, then decide out of thin air and against administration policy to send them a note.

Buzzfeed, which also published a copy of the letter, writes that the Katz’s “have no idea why they received the card.”

Matt says, “I’m not sure why the letter got sent to us. Aaron and I were married on July 24th at Borough Hall. However, we had our wedding ceremony on July 23rd at my dad’s house the day before. Maybe word got out that we were outlaws for a day?”

And if that’s not enough to at least whet your palate, yesterday Politico, in a report titled, “Barack Obama preps pitch to gay voters,” noted,

It seemed at first a major violation of message discipline: Shaun Donovan, President Barack Obama’s secretary of housing and urban development, “absolutely” endorsed same-sex marriage in an interview last month, a position in contrast with his boss, who famously declared that his own views on the issue are “evolving.”

Perhaps more remarkable than Donovan’s statement is what happened in its aftermath: Nothing.

Chalk it up as just more toes-in-the-water testing for the Obama administration.

Politico adds,

Among gay activists, the Obama administration’s recent actions — including what they perceive as a signal from someone like Donovan — have fueled speculation that Obama may finally take a step they say would energize a core constituency and strengthen a largely positive but occasionally strained political relationship.

“The initial question the president faces is, does he come out for same sex marriage now or after the election?” said Richard Socarides, president of Equality Matters, a gay rights organization. With polls trending toward public acceptance of gays and lesbians tying the knot, he said, “it may be riskier to wait.”

Endorsing gay marriage now, Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus wrote recently, could help Obama win back skeptical moderate voters and rekindle flagging enthusiasm among young people, who broadly support marriage equality.

“Mr. President, what better moment will there be? [Next year] you might lose,” she wrote.

Advocates argue that support for gay marriage could be Obama’s secret weapon for the 2012 election.

Is President Obama about to announce his support for same-sex marriage equality?

Maybe.