Gallup has just released a new report that finds the number of states that are overall Democratic has dropped significantly, while the number of states that are Republican overall has increased, almost equally. Is this cause for concern? Perhaps.
Gallup now finds that 19 states are Democratic or lean Democratic, and 17 states are Republican or lean Republican. 15 states are classified as “competitive.” And that will be the battleground.
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“Democrats have lost their solid political party affiliation advantage in 18 states since 2008, while Republicans have gained a solid advantage in 6 states,” Gallup states. “A total of 17 states were either solidly Republican or leaning Republican in their residents’ party affiliation in 2011, up from 10 in 2010 and 5 in 2008. Meanwhile, 19 states including the District of Columbia showed a solid or leaning Democratic orientation, down from 23 in 2010 and 36 in 2008. The remaining 15 states were relatively balanced politically, with neither party having a clear advantage.”
Gallup, which has become increasingly conservative over the past few years, and often skews titles and points of view toward the GOP, still does offer reliable raw data. They add:
The findings make it clear that U.S. states have undergone a dramatic political transformation since 2008, the year President Obama was elected, moving from a Democratically dominant political environment to one of parity.
The greatest movement away from the Democratic Party came between 2009 and 2010, when the number of states with a Democratic advantage fell from 34 to 23.
The greatest movement toward the Republican Party came a year later, between 2010 and 2011, with a net gain of seven GOP states, including Indiana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas. New Hampshire moved from a leaning Republican to a competitive status in 2011.
“In the last four years, the political leanings of Americans have increasingly moved toward the Republican Party after shifting decidedly Democratic between 2005 and 2008,” Gallup also states, observing that a shift is normal against the current party occupying the White House.