FiveThirtyEight: No National Backlash Against Gay Marriage.

FiveThirtyEight: No National Backlash Against Gay Marriage.

Nate Silver, in his FiveThirtyEight.com post, “Maine Revisited: Is There a Backlash Against Same-Sex Marriage?“ examines the future of the same sex marriage battle:

“…I don’t think there is any evidence of a national backlash against gay marriage. It should be borne in mind that gay marriage is still opposed by a small majority or large plurality of Americans. But there’s not really any evidence that the numbers are getting worse; instead, they appear to be v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-l-y getting better.”

Good news.

He adds,

“Whereas a 54 percent majority opposes an amendment to ban gay marriage (versus 40 percent in favor), a 53 percent majority — between the last nine national polls — also oppose allowing gay marriage (versus 42 percent in favor).

What that means is that there’s a “swing vote” of about 10 percent of the electorate that is not yet ready to allow gay marriage, but is also not willing to ban it (at least not Constitutionally). This is enough to tip the national balance on the question of gay marriage.”

So, it’s that ten percent of the population we need to focus on.

Let get moving.