Almost six in ten Americans believe Barack Obama will beat Mitt Romney in November, according to a new poll just released by Gallup. 58% of Americans, regardless of political affiliation say the President will win a second term, up two points from May, while only 36% state Mitt Romney will unseat the President, a figure that remains unchanged.
Noting “Obama supporters are significantly more likely to believe he would be a good president — 90% say so, including 75% who say only he would and 15% who say both he and Romney would be — than Romney supporters are to believe Romney would be a good president (76%),” Gallup reports:
Americans’ prediction of who will win is significant since they have generally been correct in predicting the winner of past presidential elections.
Of course, Americans’ beliefs about who will win are influenced by their preferences. Those who say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today overwhelmingly believe he will win, by an 86% to 9% margin. One reason Obama has the edge in overall predictions about the election is that Romney voters are less positive that their candidate will prevail, with 28% saying Obama will win, compared with 65% who believe Romney will win.
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